Incidence of breast cancer in the United States: Current and future trends
Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 07/14/2011
Anderson WF et al. - Recent changes in breast cancer incidence overall reflect the superimposition of divergent trends in ER-positive and ER-negative cancers. If current trends continue, the incidence of ER-positive breast cancers will increase, the incidence of ER-negative breast cancers will continue to decrease, and the incidence of breast cancer overall will remain similar to its current level.
Methods Developed a simple imputation method to correct invasive female breast cancer incidence for missing or unknown ER expression, using nationally representative data from National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program during 1980-2008, including 588?720 invasive female breast cancer patients with 471?336?233 woman-years of follow-up
- Corrected rates of ER-positive and ER-negative breast cancers used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates, estimated annual percentage changes, and projections derived from age-period-cohort models
Results - Recent decrease in incidence of breast cancer overall stabilized near 200 per 100?000 woman-years by 2007-2008, reflecting transient decrease in ER-positive cancers and steady decrease in ER-negative cancers
- Projected incidence rate for breast cancer overall through year 2016 was similar to incidence rate during 2007-2008
- Rates of ER-positive breast cancers were projected to increase 5.3% (95% CI = 5.2% to 5.4%), whereas rates of ER-negative breast cancers were projected to decrease 11.4% (95% CI = 11.3% to 11.6%) during 2009-2016